A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
